Facebook Political Post

 For those of you not on Facebook or who missed this, below is my first political post in almost four years.  I also predict what I think is going to happen in the election this year, although I could adjust some things in the final week.  I'm looking forward to watching what happens, since this will be unlike any election we have ever had or ever will have.

This is my first political post since January 20, 2016 when President Trump took office. As a political science major and a political junkie for a long time, I love talking and reading about politics. I don’t feel that posting political things on Facebook is worthwhile for me since few people are interested in having a reasonable discussion without being upset that you disagree with them.  With the election only a week away, I figured I’d make this post to cover the last four years.  I wanted to thank a number of you for your political posts over this time that have been entertaining, informative and at times infuriating.  As a former liberal Democrat(who voted for Ted Kennedy for President in the 1980 primary), I consider myself now a moderately, conservative Republican.  I enjoy reading both sides of the issues, which I do daily.  My thanks goes to Elaine, Frank, Jeff, Bill, Barry and Dan, who I’ve enjoyed reading and agreeing and disagreeing with. Over the last five years I’ve saved over 1,000 stories and some posts, I’ve written two hundred pages on President Trump’s first year in office and I continue to add to my political library of books.  My two favorite authors are Democrat James Carville and Republican Ann Coulter.

Unfortunately, there are many misconceptions that people have about “the other side.” (people they disagree with) Someone on the other side says, posts, or tweets or does something they shouldn’t have done and it’s easy to say, “see, that’s how they are.” The media plays up those comments which makes things worse. The truth is that people who disagree with you are not mostly on the far right or far left, the majority of them are much closer to the middle.  I enjoy reading things I disagree with for these reasons: 1. It can be very entertaining.  2.  I learn how and why they think that way.  3. Sometimes I find things I agree with on the other side. 4. It confirms my belief in what I believe by hearing the other side.

If you think you are objective and not a partisan of one side, try this: If you were very supportive of President Obama, how many positive things can you say about President Trump?  And, if you are a supporter of President Trump, how many positive things can you say about President Obama?

Election night 2016: I was convinced it was going to be a long night and that Donald Trump had a shot at winning. I predicted he would lose the popular vote, 48%-47% and the difference in the electoral college would be Florida and Hillary would win it and be elected. I only got close to being right, but two years ago I did pick Biden and Harris as the Democrats who President Trump would be running against.

2020: I’ll make three points:   1. President Trump has no chance of winning the popular vote and never did. President Obama won New York and California by 5 million votes in both his elections and Hillary Clinton won them by 6 million. (this means that President Trump won the rest of the country by more than 3 million votes)  I believe that Joe Biden will win New York and California by at least 7 million votes and President Trump cannot overcome those numbers.     2. In 2016, there were 138 million ballots turned in.  Two million people picked no one for President and 6 million picked a third party.  That will not happen this year. It is expected that there will be more votes this year, but let’s say it’s only 140 million. To win the popular vote, President Trump would need over 70 million votes or 7 million more than last time, that will not happen. I can see him getting a few more million, but not 7 million. If the numbers hit 150 million, he would need about 75 million to win or almost 20% more votes than last time, it’s not happening.  I think he’ll lose the popular vote by 8-10 million votes, most of them from New York and California and he will lose the rest of country by a couple million votes.

3. I think President Trump pulls out Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, but he falls short with a few of the states he won last time and Joe Biden is elected.  Some of these states will be close as there are always close races in some states.  With ballots being counted late and possibly as many as 1 million ballots disqualified because they came in late or were not filled out correctly, there will be controversy about the results in a few of these states.

Two years ago, as an Uber driver, I picked up a mayor of a small town in Pennsylvania. It was a lot of fun talking to a “politician” who was down to earth, very practical in his solutions to problems, and also funny.  I’d vote for him if he was in any party.  I had to ask him, “are you a Democrat or a Republican?” He said, “when people ask me that question, I tell them, I’m an American.”

Whatever happens with this election I think it’s important to remember that we are all Americans and we are all entitled to our opinions. No matter what you might think about “the other side”, the truth is that in many ways they are very much like you and me. They have different views based on their life experiences and what they’ve learned.  And, there really are good people on both sides of MOST issues. I would hope that over the next few weeks, months, or years, that more people spend time reading and talking to people they disagree with. I think it’s the American thing to do.

If anyone is interested in discussing anything in this post, send me a personal message. This post is long enough for the last four years, so I will reply privately.