Friday, November 8, 2024

34 Hours in New Jersey

 


It was a short trip recently, eleven hours of driving from Myrtle Beach to Branchburg on Friday and then 11 hours the other way on Sunday. We were there for a Celebration of Life Day for my wife's cousin.  We were at the cemetery and then we went out to lunch with family.

We also squeezed in a few hours for a couple friends and our daughter and son-in-law.  I invited one of my friends, Larry, over to our hotel for a free breakfast Saturday morning and this was the second time this year I treated him at this hotel.  In April, he brought his guitar and gave me a private concert of one song in the pool area.  He is pictured below lounging by the indoor pool and saying hello to a former co-worker who was sent this picture.


Some of the other highlights of the trip were things that I learned or had never seen before.  This is an electronic salt grinder which is new to me since I don't use salt on anything and I needed an explanation on this object.


The dishwasher I saw was amusing because it actually has "dirty" and "clean" printed on it and you slide the message back and forth.  I think it's more fun asking my wife if it's clean or examining the dishes. Take notice that the white message is for "clean" and the darker one is "dirty."





Something amusing happened in the hotel shower.  I was sure I heard music playing and could not figure out where it was coming from.  According to my wife, it was not my imagination and this drain somehow plays music as the water hits it.  I thought I heard "Raindrops Keep Falling On My Head," but maybe it was just my imagination running away from me.  My wife also told me that it was the same drain the last two times we were there, but all I heard previously was water coming down.




Monday, November 4, 2024

MY MOST MEMORABLE RIDER COMMENTS IN OCTOBER




Me: "How did you two meet?" He said, "We met at the rodeo. My friend bet me $50 I couldn't get her number. I went over to her and gave her my phone and said, 'Can you fill this out for me?'" (Engaged and together ten years)

He: "What's the number one responsibility of a father? Teach your kids how to throw-up, so they get to the toilet."

Cleveland Browns fan: "For the last ten years every time the Browns lose I donate $1 to charity. (St. Judes) I'm going to go broke."

Me: "Have you ever gotten a gift from an Uber driver?" Her: "Maybe some fleas once."

The engineer who designs crosswalks, asked, "Why do they have so many crosswalks in Myrtle Beach that go nowhere?"

I asked him what he does for work in Kentucky and he said, "I make peanut butter for a living.  At Jiffy, we put out one million pounds a day and I get free peanut butter all the time."

I showed them a picture of the largest golf driver in the world from their home state of Illinois and she said, "Can you swing it?" Me: "It's 731 pounds." She: "I know a lot of strong men."

As he got in my car I asked the young guy, "What are you up to today?" He said, "I just skedaddled out of a girl's apartment." I asked, "Do you skedaddle a lot?" He said, "I do."

He: "Charleston is where all the beautiful women are. In high school they all sat at the same table, today they are all in Charleston."

He grew up in Boston and was a big Red Sox fan. I said, "How great is this? The morning after the Yankees win the pennant, I get to talk with a Red Sox fan! I've had a lot of great rides with Red Sox fans." He said, "This isn't going to be one of them." When he got out, he said, "F_ _ _ the Yankees." He was only half joking.

When I told her that the picture of the Super Bowl ring hanging in my car was from a woman working for the Chiefs in public relations, she said, "They let women work in the NFL?"

The Citadel student said, "I'm worried that some of my friends in other colleges are learning how to be functional alcoholics."

I asked the couple what they were up today and he said, "We're doing some swimming." He meant they were going to drink by the water. I said, "I really thought you were going swimming." He: "That's probably because I have a swimmer's body."

She: "English was my worst subject in school, because nuns were teaching it."

I asked the woman in medical sales for twenty years," What's the secret to your sales success?" She said, "Being genuine, knowledgeable, and persistent."

His real name is Moses and he said, "I had a number of teachers growing up who told me that I didn't act like Moses did."

She: "I wasn't going to come to the bachelorette party, but I won $1,000 on the slots, so I came."

She: "I drive badly so no one asks me to drive them."

The woman who lost her child eleven years ago during childbirth told me, "Every year I take off on that day and we release balloons to remember him."

The angry Verizon user said as he was getting out, "I better tip you now before I throw this phone through the wall."


                                             MORE RIDER COMMENTS

She: "I was named Sloane, because my dad liked the name from the girl in the movie, "Ferris Bueller's Day Off."

The young guy said, "The day I got the DUI was the worst day of my life." (In a golf cart)

"In Thailand they have shrimp in their pizza."

From Canada originally I told him that I visited "Man and his World" in Montreal when I was a kid. (World's Fair in 1967)  He said, "You can't say that anymore."

"Chicago is the best city in the world to live in between June and October."

"The class that more people fail in college than any other is accounting."

Instead of saying her car was in the shop, she said, "My car is in distress."

He told me, "I was born to live out in the woods."

Talking to him how on the app Uber considers this a trip and not a ride.  He said, "It is called rideshare."

The big Chicago Cubs fan admitted, "When they won in 2016 I cried like a baby."

She: "As a med-tech I work seven straight twelve hour days and then I have seven straight days off. I get two weeks of work done every other week."

Woman originally from Denmark, "I'm retired as an ice skater and I've toured Europe, Canada, and the United States."

Very interested in politics, I asked him, "What do you think is going to happen in the election?" He said, "I think she's going to get smoked."

From Idaho, the teacher told me, "Idaho is on of the worst states in spending for education and Washington state is one of the best."

After I told him I had over 14,000 rides, he said, "They should get you a cake."

She said, "My friend's brother's girlfriend was the college student who got killed getting into a car that wasn't an Uber a few years ago."


                                UNIQUE OCCUPATIONS

Book Event Planner for Publishing Company

Crosswalk and Traffic Signal Designer

Confidential Secretary for the New York Stock Exchange

Peanut Butter Maker for Jiffy

Airplane mechanic and Pro Boxer

Retired ice skater from Denmark

His title is "Right Away Line Clearance.

President Materials Company

Tour bus driver for "The Temptations"

Law Professor

General Manager Steel Company



                                                    (She's from Chicago, Lily is from Kansas)

                      COMMENTS ABOUT LILY MY MANNEQUIN


"What's with the doll head?"

"I didn't even see her there."

She: "My mom was a manager in a department store and she had a young girl responsible for dressing all the mannequins and she used to talk to them too."

He: "She's hot."

"My daughter was told by another child that mannequins were really dead people."

"What is she looking at?"


                   COMMENTS ABOUT ME AND MY CAR

"You just made my day."

"This is so special-I never could have expected to get a ride like this."

"I had a really hard time all week, you are all the sunshine I needed today."

The company President said, "I love what you're doing. This is human-why we exist."

"This is the most interesting ride I've ever had."

"That was the best ride ever."

"You're so much fun."

"This is amazing."

"I love your car."

"Hope you get your 20,000 rides."

"This was awesome."




Friday, November 1, 2024

THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

 

Over forty years ago, I graduated college with an English and Political Science degree.  I've been a political junkie for all these years and I have a large library of books on both sides of the political aisle. I also love numbers, so election night for me  is bigger than The Super Bowl.  I've spent hundreds of hours reading about this election and I'll continue to read about it for months to come.  

It is only a few days from Election Day and this is my political blog with my predictions and why. Earlier this year I blogged that I didn't believe it would come down to Biden vs Trump and I got that one right. Four years ago, I made the below points before the 2020 election and I copied them below:


2020: I’ll make three points:   1. President Trump has no chance of winning the popular vote and never did.  I believe that Joe Biden will win New York and California by at least 7 million votes

 I think Trump will lose the popular vote by 8-10 million votes, most of them from New York and California and he will lose the rest of country by a couple million votes.

 I think President Trump pulls out Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, but he falls short with a few of the states he won last time and Joe Biden is elected.  Some of these states will be close as there are always close races in some states.

I did pretty well here since Biden won California by 7 million, although Biden and Trump were in a dead heat over the rest of the country.  I did pick Trump to win Pennsylvania which he didn't, but I said Biden would win by winning some of the states Trump won in 2016.




Here are five questions and answers about the election:

1. Can Donald Trump win the popular vote? Absolutely, positively, NO! It is not going to happen and here's why: 

The two largest liberal states are California and New York.  Below are the popular vote totals for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate from these two states and their totals outside of those two states:

California and New York                                          Rest of country

2008 Obama   + 5 million                                           +4.5 million

2012 Obama    +5 million                                              Even

2016 Clinton    +6 million                                            -3 million

2020 Biden      +7 million                                             Even 

Total                +23 million                                           +1.5 million

Harris is from California and she will win these two states by 5-6 million votes, Trump cannot overcome that many votes in the rest of the country. However, Harris will not win the vote outside those two states. Two points on California: it does not get their final numbers for a couple weeks because of their size.  Trump had 6 million votes in California four years ago, yet he lost the state by 5 million votes.


2.  Will other candidates impact the vote? It could have been a lot more, but only 2% of the vote four years ago were to other candidates and it won't be more than 3% this year.  


3. Will there be a declared winner on election night? No, it's extremely unlikely it will happen. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin do not count all absentee ballots until election day.  However, I think it's likely there will be a recognized leader very early the next day.


4. Did pollsters once again underestimate Trump's numbers? They have made concerted efforts to prevent this, but a race that is almost a dead heat will certainly swing his way if there is any miscalculating like this again.


5.  Over the last few weeks there have been many polls showing one candidate with a 1% or 2% lead. Is that significant at all? The margin of error is probably 3-4% so no, this is not significant. What a 1-2% lead means is that the race is up for grabs and it's highly unlikely a candidate will win that state by 5 points.


6. What issues will make the biggest difference?

A. My favorite Democratic writer, James Carville, famously said during the Clinton elections, "It's the economy stupid." The ECONOMY issue favors the challenger, Trump.

B. If CHANGE is what the country wants, this favors the challenger, Trump. I do believe that a woman's perspective and a younger person is change, but polls show that the country is not happy with the direction of the country by very large numbers and that cannot favor the incumbent party.

C. If MONEY is a major factor down the stretch, this definitely favors Harris since the Democratic party has a very large advantage here. (However, Hillary outspent Trump by half a billion dollars and lost)

D. If ABORTION is the key factor, this favors Harris, 

E. The IMMIGRATION/BORDER problem is a big issue that clearly favors Trump.


RANDOM THOUGHTS ON RECENT EVENTS:

The Al Smith Dinner: I was shocked that Harris skipped this event and sent a video.  It's a non-partisan charity event every four years that the two candidates get to joke with each other and the press.  It is a very favorable event for Democrats, but only Trump attended.

The interview with Harris on Fox News: I give her credit for going, but it was not good for her.  There were a couple moments I thought she did okay, but this was why her staff has been keeping her away from difficult questions.  She also showed up late and her staff was waving to end the interview.

Trump working at McDonalds: It was funny to see, but seeing pictures of him working the window reminded people that he is more like them.  He has always related well to regular people which is part of his appeal.  I'm sure it wasn't his idea, but someone should have gotten a raise for it.

Trump canceling several interviews: It does bring up the question if his age and stamina is a problem.  He has been running for the full year compared to only a couple months for Harris.  Watch where he ends his campaign.  In 2016 his last event was in Minnesota after midnight into election day because he was trying to win that state.(Lost by 1%) Hillary's last event was in the heart of Philly with all her supporters and celebrities.  He outworked her from beginning to end.

Trump did a three-hour interview with podcast star Joe Rogan: He did well on a long interview. To be fair, Harris has had trouble doing 20-25 minute interviews and she admitted this week that her weakness is that she has difficulty answering questions spontaneously.   


PREDICTIONS: 

THE POPLULAR VOTE:

If there are 150 million votes, a 3% victory is 4.5 million votes.  I think Trump wins outside of California/New York by 3-4 million votes and Harris wins those two states by 5-6 million. Predictions so far have said she needs to win this by at least 3% to also win the electoral college. I think she wins this by around 2 1/2%, just less than what Hillary beat Trump by.

My picks:

VP Harris 50%

Pres. Trump 48%

Others 2%


THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

The seven battleground states are Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Arizona.  Most, if not all, will be very close with 1-3% victories.  I think Trump wins at least five of these, one being Pennsylvania. (Biden who was from Pennsylvania may have had a better chance to win there as he did four years ago)

It is very common in elections for there to be close races and these states for the third consecutive election will make the difference. 

I think Trump wins with 285-300 electoral votes.


THE REST OF US:

Whoever wins, it will be remarkable that they pulled it out.  It will not be the last election nor the end of the world.

The reality is that around 75 million people voted for the candidate you didn't vote for.  You may not understand how they could have, but they did.  It may be your neighbor, co-worker, mailman, or the server the next time you go out to eat, or even a relative. 

You don't have to like everything they do.  You don't want to have everyone around you agree with you on everything either.  Trust me, but if you don't agree, it won't bother me at all.