Over forty years ago, I graduated college with an English and Political Science degree. I've been a political junkie for all these years and I have a large library of books on both sides of the political aisle. I also love numbers, so election night for me is bigger than The Super Bowl. I've spent hundreds of hours reading about this election and I'll continue to read about it for months to come.
It is only a few days from Election Day and this is my political blog with my predictions and why. Earlier this year I blogged that I didn't believe it would come down to Biden vs Trump and I got that one right. Four years ago, I made the below points before the 2020 election and I copied them below:
2020: I’ll make three points: 1. President Trump has no chance of winning the popular vote and never did. I believe that Joe Biden will win New York and California by at least 7 million votes
I think Trump will lose the popular vote by 8-10 million votes, most of them from New York and California and he will lose the rest of country by a couple million votes.
I think President Trump pulls out Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, but he falls short with a few of the states he won last time and Joe Biden is elected. Some of these states will be close as there are always close races in some states.
I did pretty well here since Biden won California by 7 million, although Biden and Trump were in a dead heat over the rest of the country. I did pick Trump to win Pennsylvania which he didn't, but I said Biden would win by winning some of the states Trump won in 2016.
Here are five questions and answers about the election:
1. Can Donald Trump win the popular vote? Absolutely, positively, NO! It is not going to happen and here's why:
The two largest liberal states are California and New York. Below are the popular vote totals for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate from these two states and their totals outside of those two states:
California and New York Rest of country
2008 Obama + 5 million +4.5 million
2012 Obama +5 million Even
2016 Clinton +6 million -3 million
2020 Biden +7 million Even
Total +23 million +1.5 million
Harris is from California and she will win these two states by 5-6 million votes, Trump cannot overcome that many votes in the rest of the country. However, Harris will not win the vote outside those two states. Two points on California: it does not get their final numbers for a couple weeks because of their size. Trump had 6 million votes in California four years ago, yet he lost the state by 5 million votes.
2. Will other candidates impact the vote? It could have been a lot more, but only 2% of the vote four years ago were to other candidates and it won't be more than 3% this year.
3. Will there be a declared winner on election night? No, it's extremely unlikely it will happen. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin do not count all absentee ballots until election day. However, I think it's likely there will be a recognized leader very early the next day.
4. Did pollsters once again underestimate Trump's numbers? They have made concerted efforts to prevent this, but a race that is almost a dead heat will certainly swing his way if there is any miscalculating like this again.
5. Over the last few weeks there have been many polls showing one candidate with a 1% or 2% lead. Is that significant at all? The margin of error is probably 3-4% so no, this is not significant. What a 1-2% lead means is that the race is up for grabs and it's highly unlikely a candidate will win that state by 5 points.
6. What issues will make the biggest difference?
A. My favorite Democratic writer, James Carville, famously said during the Clinton elections, "It's the economy stupid." The ECONOMY issue favors the challenger, Trump.
B. If CHANGE is what the country wants, this favors the challenger, Trump. I do believe that a woman's perspective and a younger person is change, but polls show that the country is not happy with the direction of the country by very large numbers and that cannot favor the incumbent party.
C. If MONEY is a major factor down the stretch, this definitely favors Harris since the Democratic party has a very large advantage here. (However, Hillary outspent Trump by half a billion dollars and lost)
D. If ABORTION is the key factor, this favors Harris,
E. The IMMIGRATION/BORDER problem is a big issue that clearly favors Trump.
RANDOM THOUGHTS ON RECENT EVENTS:
The Al Smith Dinner: I was shocked that Harris skipped this event and sent a video. It's a non-partisan charity event every four years that the two candidates get to joke with each other and the press. It is a very favorable event for Democrats, but only Trump attended.
The interview with Harris on Fox News: I give her credit for going, but it was not good for her. There were a couple moments I thought she did okay, but this was why her staff has been keeping her away from difficult questions. She also showed up late and her staff was waving to end the interview.
Trump working at McDonalds: It was funny to see, but seeing pictures of him working the window reminded people that he is more like them. He has always related well to regular people which is part of his appeal. I'm sure it wasn't his idea, but someone should have gotten a raise for it.
Trump canceling several interviews: It does bring up the question if his age and stamina is a problem. He has been running for the full year compared to only a couple months for Harris. Watch where he ends his campaign. In 2016 his last event was in Minnesota after midnight into election day because he was trying to win that state.(Lost by 1%) Hillary's last event was in the heart of Philly with all her supporters and celebrities. He outworked her from beginning to end.
Trump did a three-hour interview with podcast star Joe Rogan: He did well on a long interview. To be fair, Harris has had trouble doing 20-25 minute interviews and she admitted this week that her weakness is that she has difficulty answering questions spontaneously.
PREDICTIONS:
THE POPLULAR VOTE:
If there are 150 million votes, a 3% victory is 4.5 million votes. I think Trump wins outside of California/New York by 3-4 million votes and Harris wins those two states by 5-6 million. Predictions so far have said she needs to win this by at least 3% to also win the electoral college. I think she wins this by around 2 1/2%, just less than what Hillary beat Trump by.
My picks:
VP Harris 50%
Pres. Trump 48%
Others 2%
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
The seven battleground states are Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Arizona. Most, if not all, will be very close with 1-3% victories. I think Trump wins at least five of these, one being Pennsylvania. (Biden who was from Pennsylvania may have had a better chance to win there as he did four years ago)
It is very common in elections for there to be close races and these states for the third consecutive election will make the difference.
I think Trump wins with 285-300 electoral votes.
THE REST OF US:
Whoever wins, it will be remarkable that they pulled it out. It will not be the last election nor the end of the world.
The reality is that around 75 million people voted for the candidate you didn't vote for. You may not understand how they could have, but they did. It may be your neighbor, co-worker, mailman, or the server the next time you go out to eat, or even a relative.
You don't have to like everything they do. You don't want to have everyone around you agree with you on everything either. Trust me, but if you don't agree, it won't bother me at all.
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